Concerns regarding a potential Iranian attack on Israel reached their peak on Thursday, the eve of the last Friday of Ramadan, which Tehran has designated as Quds Day in solidarity with Palestinians.
Late Thursday, Axios reported that Israel has gathered intelligence that shows Iran could attack Israel from its soil using long-range ballistic missiles, cruise missiles or drones”. Axios also cited an Israeli source about a phone call between Israeli and American defense ministers.
In his cabinet meeting Thursday, Netanyahu warned Iran that Israel would “harm” anyone who wants to harm it. "For years, Iran has been acting against us both directly and via its proxies,” he said, “Israel is acting against Iran and its proxies, defensively and offensively."
The term ‘Quds Day’ was first coined in Iran immediately after the 1979 Revolution. It gained significance after Ruhollah Khomeini, the leader of that revolution –and the founder of Iran’s Islamic Republic– called on Muslims everywhere to mark the day by pro-Palestinian rallies and protests against Israel.
Quds Day and the fasting month of Ramadan has often seen a heightened tension in Israel and the Palestinian Occupied Territories, but this year the stakes are much higher because of October 7th and the ensuing Israeli onslaught on Gaza, which has drawn the world’s attention to the decades-long tragedy like never before.
“This year’s Quds Day will be a global uproar against the usurping Zionist regime,” Iran’s leader Ali Khamenei said this week. “In previous years, Quds Day [rallies] were held only in Islamic countries. But this year, it’s highly likely that Quds Day [rallies] are organized in non-Islamic countries as well, with glory, God willing.”
Israeli officials had raised concerns about potential attacks by Iran, Hamas, and Hezbollah before Ramadan began. Defense minister Yoav Gallant had predicted attempts to turn the holy Muslim month into the “second phase” of what happened on October 7th and "inflame the region."
Four days to the end of Ramadan, the “second phase” Gallant warned about seems to have not materialized. But the fear of a Middle East in “flames” is still very much alive, even more so since April 1 when Israel killed seven members of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, including two high-ranking commanders, in an unprecedented airstrike on Iran’s consulate in Damascus.
Most Iranian officials immediately threatened to retaliate. There were also some inside Iran who called for a “measured response” to avoid escalation. Khamenei spoke of “punishment” for Israel. “We will make them regret this crime and other ones like it,” he said one day after the airstrike on Iran’s consulate.
Shortly after, reports began circulating in Israeli media about the possibility of retaliatory attack by Iran or its proxies, raising fears among the public and putting the Israeli army on high alert.
US officials said they had not picked up intelligence suggesting Iran-backed groups were looking to target US troops following Monday's attack.
Nonetheless some experts and insiders –such as Amos Yadlin, a former Israeli intelligence chief– warned that Iran might choose Quds Day (Friday 5 April) to respond to the strike on its consulate in Syria, either directly or through a proxy.
Until now, Iran has somehow avoided direct confrontations with Israel and the US. But on Thursday, Reuters quoted a US official, speaking on condition of anonymity, that many fear “Iran would make good on its threats to retaliate, raising the risk of volatile, regional escalation.”
But many experts believe that Tehran is not as interested, as it shows it is, in a full-blown war with Israel –and potentially the US– not least because a costly war could further destabilize the country and mark the beginning of the end of the Islamic Republic.
